This latter strategy, known as disruption, is the kind of thing we’ve come to expect in mindless Hollywood films, but it could work if done decades in advance; over the years, the ensuing fragments would likely go on their own orbital journeys and no longer threaten Earth.
But as promising new research published in Acta Astronautica shows, the disruption strategy might even work on asteroids that are just months away from striking Earth.For all asteroids tested, nuclear strikes performed months in advance of an impact served to significantly reduce the volume of incoming material.
“Simply stated, for a 100-meter object that’s projected to hit Earth, if we employ a robust nuclear disruption technique by at least one month before impact, we can prevent 99% or more of the impacting mass from hitting the Earth,” King explained in an email.Some simulated outcomes were particularly good, including scenarios in which over 99.9% of an asteroid’s mass missed Earth when nuked two months in advance.Results for larger asteroids were not as impressive but still exceptionally good, with 99% of their total mass missing Earth if nuked six months prior to impact.