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As China hits record 40,052 daily cases, can zero-Covid policy continue? - South China Morning Post
Nov 28, 2022 1 min, 47 secs

The latest Covid-19 waves in China have revealed more transmissible but less lethal strains of the coronavirus, but it is too early to be optimistic, public health experts have warned.

Just days after China relaxed some zero-Covid measures, infection numbers in the current outbreak hit a new high of 40,052 on Monday, with 36,304 yet to show symptoms.

The waves risk burdening the health system and if China were to change its response, it should put fewer resources into mass testing and more into vaccination and public education, according to one epidemiologist.

The number of severe cases, however, has been comparatively low.

Authorities have held fast to a dynamic zero-Covid policy, which relies on cutting transmission chains as soon as possible with mass testing and snap lockdowns.

They say China’s healthcare system cannot afford to “live with the virus” and unchecked spread given the vast population would mean an explosion in severe cases and death.

“Omicron is so contagious and case numbers could rise so quickly that even though most infections are mild there will still be a peak with probably too many severe cases for the healthcare system to manage at the same time.”.

And when zero-Covid becomes too difficult to maintain because it would require more stringent measures, longer lockdowns and more mass testing – on top of growing fatigue with the measures and their social and economic impact – China would have few options but to move away from the policy, Cowling said.

If it becomes impossible to reduce case numbers back down to zero nationwide, even with prolonged lockdowns and repeated mass testing, there may be no alternative but to transition away from those stringent measures,” he said.

The government should also come up with policies for home quarantine of mild cases and close contacts, give up the health tracking app and relax travel restrictions, he said, as “they are not necessary once transitioning away from a zero-Covid strategy”.

Only 5 per cent of the fatal cases in Shanghai earlier this year were vaccinated, the China CDC Weekly paper in September noted.

“The last 10 per cent in any vaccination campaign is the most difficult to reach,” it said.

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