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Biden struggles, as does his party, as most Democrats look elsewhere for 2024: POLL - ABC News
Sep 25, 2022 2 mins, 12 secs

In the November midterm election ahead, registered voters divide 47%-46% between the Republican and the Democratic candidate in their House district, historically not enough to prevent typical first-midterm losses.

Supreme Court's ruling eliminating a constitutional right to abortion and a big Democratic advantage in trust to handle the issue.

There's something else the Democrats can hang on to; their current results are better than last November, when the Republicans led in national House vote preferences by 10 percentage points, 51%-41% -- the largest midterm Republican lead in ABC/Post polls dating back 40 years.

And the public trusts the Democratic Party over the Republican Party to handle abortion by a wide 20 points.

The GOP leads the Democrats by 16 points in trust to handle the economy overall and by 19 points in trust to handle inflation.

Equally important, 84% call the economy a top issue in their vote for Congress and 76% say the same about inflation.

In addition to the economy, the Republicans can be expected to focus on crime in the campaigns' closing weeks; they lead by 14 points in trust to handle it, and it's highly important to 69%.

While inflation, the economy and abortion are marquee issues, one stands out for another reason: The Republicans' 14-point advantage in trust to handle crime matches its largest since 1991.

Seventy-two percent of registered voters say they're certain to vote in the congressional election in their district; slightly more, 76%, said so in October 2018, a year in which turnout hit a postwar high for a midterm.

For example, among registered voters who call abortion a top issue, 75% say they're certain to vote, while among those who call the economy a top issue, an almost-identical 74% say they'll vote.

Beyond differential turnout, weakness in midterm vote preference among Black and Hispanic voters may compound Democratic concerns.

While Democratic House candidates lead their Republican opponents by 61 points among Black adults who are registered to vote, that compares with at least 79-point margins in exit polls in the past four midterms.

This survey's sample of Hispanics who are registered to vote is too small for reliable analysis, but the contest among them looks much closer than recent Democratic margins -- 40 points in 2018, 27 points in 2014 and 22 points in 2010.

Republican candidates, meanwhile, show some strength among registered voters who don't have a college degree, +11 points in vote preference compared with an even split in the 2018 ABC News exit poll.

This is a group that voted Democratic by 12 points in 2018 -- but Republican by 14 points in 2014 (when the GOP won 13 House seats) and by 19 points in 2010 (when the GOP won 63 seats).

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