Colorado public health officials say modeling data shows a second spike in coronavirus cases is expected to be worse than the first spike in April.

Colorado public health officials say modeling data shows a second spike in coronavirus cases is expected to be worse than the first spike in April. .

Modeling data based on previous coronavirus data collected by the state health department shows that 65% social distancing — the state's social distancing goal through the safer-at-home period — will be required through most of this year to not overwhelm hospital capacity, Samet said.

Going anywhere below that level of social distancing shows a spike in coronavirus cases requiring hospitalization that would exceed hospital bed capacity as early as this summer.

Going below 45% social distancing — which is like a person cutting back on the normal amount of social activities by less than half — is predicted to lead to a surge in coronavirus cases, Samet said.

The modeling data also shows a spike in new coronavirus cases in mid-August when most schools are scheduled to resume in-person learning for the first time since March, Samet said.

Maintaining high levels of social distancing — 65% or above for older adults — will likely be required through November, according to the state health department's models.

In the last week of May, the state processed more than 33,000 coronavirus tests, according to data provided by the state health department. 

Right now, the state is detecting about 52% of symptomatic cases, with the goal of being able to detect and trace 80% of cases, Herlihy said Monday