Apr 29, 2021 5 mins, 14 secs

3) 49ers: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama. It's utterly insane to me that the 49ers gave up the 12th overall pick, a first-round pick in 2022, a first-round pick in 2023, and a third-round pick in 2022 to move up to this spot to draft Mac Jones, who offers very little in the way of impressive physical traits. If they already had the No. 3 pick, and they were like, "Well, we like him best of the quarterbacks," and then they just took him, then, OK. But to trade that package of picks? It's hard for me to wrap my head around, but it's been so widely reported that Jones is the pick, and it also matches with what I've heard in my digging that I guess I'll reluctantly slot him in here. 🤷‍♂️.

4) Falcons: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida. The Falcons basically put this pick up for auction, which tells me they don't love any of the quarterbacks they thought might be available here. They'll probably ride with Matt Ryan a while longer, and take the best player available, which is Pitts. They should take a quarterback, but the belief here is that they'll be delusional about their chances of competing for a Super Bowl in Ryan's twilight years..

7) Lions: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon. The Lions feel like a strong trade-back candidate, as quarterbacks should still be available here. They have needs all over, particularly at wide receiver, but this feels a little too early for DeVonta Smith. If the Lions just make a pick, the addition of Sewell would give them a very strong line, though they'd have to figure out who would play RT, between Sewell or Taylor Decker. This is an imperfect fit, but for a team expected to be picking in the top 10 again next year, just get the most valuable player. In my opinion, that's Sewell.

9) Broncos: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State. The Broncos could also trade up for a quarterback. They can still probably get Lance or Justin Fields if they just stand pat.

11) Patriots (trade with the Giants): Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State. It's like someone was holding a metaphorical garden hose, folded it so that water built up but could not escape, let it go, and suddenly a bunch of "The Eagles love Justin Fields" reports shot out

Anyway, what that likely smokescreen says is that the (a) the Eagles want someone to trade up ahead of them to take a quarterback, and (b) they think that Fields is more likely to slide than Lance

Anyway, if you're the Patriots and you have an opportunity to go up and get a quarterback as talented as Fields and only have to move up four spots to do so, it's probably better not to chance that (a) the Eagles wouldn't take Fields at 12, and (b) some other team like the Bears or Football Team won't jump ahead of them at 15

77) Patriots: Nobody. This pick is forfeited because the Patriots got caught cheating... again.

13) Chargers: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina. The Chargers badly need OL help, but Horn is a better prospect than any offensive lineman who might be available here, and they have arguably just as big a need at corner.

15) Giants (trade with the Patriots). Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan: Dave Gettleman has never traded back. And not just in the first round. Like, literally, he has never traded back in any round, ever, in his eight years as a general manager in the NFL. He insists that he's open to it, via Jordan Raanan of ESPN, and that it has almost happened in the past, so we'll believe that it's possible. And for the Giants, it really makes the most sense, since positional needs and prospect value are unlikely to align for them at pick No. 11. They desperately need edge rusher help, and there should be multiple options available to them at pick No. 15.

17) Raiders: Trevon Moehrig, S, Raiders. A deep middle safety is of more importance in Gus Bradley's defensive scheme than it is in others' around the NFL, and while Trevon Moehrig is more than just a centerfielder type, he would fill a huge need. They should try to trade back.

20) Bears: Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami. Phillips is probably the most talented edge rusher in this draft, but there are concerns about his medicals. With Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy in survival mode, they'll care less about long-term medical concerns than other teams, and will be more interested in who can help right now. With Robert Quinn having a disappointing season last year, Phillips can potentially slide into an immediate meaningful role.

21) Colts: Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami: Quarterback excluded 😜, the Colts' most glaring need, by far, is edge rusher, and they should have their choice of a few of them who should be available at the 21st spot.

24) Steelers: Najee Harris, RB, Alabama: A trade down by the Steelers here is possible, seeing as the teams behind them aren't likely to draft a running back. Yeah, taking a RB in Round 1 is taboo for some, but Harris is an immediate starter out of the box, and he's a power runner with receiving chops.

In six years as the 49ers' GM, Trent Baalke drafted three defensive linemen (two DTs) in the first round. He also took a DE in the first round of his lone draft with the Jags in 2020.

27) Ravens: Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia. Ojulari would go higher if not for a reported potentially degenerative knee issue. He'd be a perfect fit in the Ravens' scheme, and Baltimore seems to have a never-ending, in-and-out, revolving door of talented pass rushers, making Ojulari's long-term medical issues less concerning.

28) Saints: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech. There are some who believe Farley is the most talented CB prospect in this draft class, but significant injury concerns are going to push him to the back half of the first round, or later. With Drew Brees' retirement and a salary cap situation that finally caught up with them this offseason, the Saints will be rebuilding to some degree, and can take a big swing on Farley.

32) Buccaneers: Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State

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