Only one Sunday game has a point spread above 4.5 points, thanks to nine games featuring a line of 3.5 points or less.

And the under in Lions games is 7-1 over their past eight.

Picks: Under 41.5, Mooney over 56.5 receiving yards (-115), Dalton over 218.5 passing yards + Montgomery anytime TD (+190).

Dalton has thrown for 471 yards in four games played this season, but from 2016 to 2020, he averaged 235 yards per game.

Mooney has averaged 139.3 air yards per game over his past three games, clearly indicating the Bears are eager to involve him.

In the previous four games, he averaged 6.2 targets and 50 receiving yards.

With 140.5 rushing yards allowed per game, Detroit has the league's second-worst run defense.

In six active games this season, Montgomery has averaged 16 rushing attempts and 71.7 rushing yards per game.

This season, Swift has averaged 20.4 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) and 97.3 total yards per game.

Picks: Dalton over 218.5 total passing yards (-115), Mooney over 56.5 receiving yards (-115), Kmet over 36.5 receiving yards (-115), Montgomery over 77.5 rushing yards (-115), Montgomery first touchdown scorer (+360), Swift over 102.5 rushing+receiving yards (-110).

The Raiders offense has struggled without wide receiver Henry Ruggs III, scoring no more than 16 points in any of their past three games.

The Cowboys defense was able to hold the Chiefs to three points in the second half of Sunday's game, and with a short work week, I like the under.

Pick: Under 50.5, Pollard over 39.5 rushing yards (-120), Schultz over 50.5 receiving yards (-120).

Carr is averaging 304 passing yards per game on the season but just 238 per game over the past two.

Elliott is averaging 15 rushing attempts and 69.5 rushing yards per game this season and has a great chance to surpass that per-game average now that he is close to full strength after working through a knee injury and is facing the Raiders' fourth-worst rush defense, which is allowing 132 rushing yards per game.

Picks: Carr over 263.5 passing yards (-115), Elliott over 62.5 rushing yards (-115), Gallup over 58.5 receiving yards (-115).

Fortenbaugh: In the three contests since the Raiders dropped Ruggs from the roster, the offense has 16 points against the Giants, 14 points against the Chiefs and 13 points against the Bengals while averaging only 326.6 yards of offense per game.

I'm not certain which Bills offense will show up, but regardless, the Saints defense is not an easy test.

Diggs' target opportunity does not justify this line; his expected receiving yards based on air yards, expected completion probability and expected YAC is just 66.4 per game this season.

Over the past five games, he has averaged 5.2 targets and 67.6 receiving air yards!

He was targeted 10 times against the Colts and had his second-most receiving air yards in a game (68).

A few weeks ago, the Saints allowed Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts to accumulate 62 receiving yards.

Sanders has caught 12 of 19 targets for 118 yards over his past four games.

Sanders has averaged 105.5 receiving yards in his two games against New Orleans.

In fact, despite Joe Burrow's impressive fantasy numbers this year, the Steelers have the better offensive DVOA even including the Rudolph game -- and we know that offense is more predictive than defense or special teams.

We are looking at a team that very easily could be on an eight-game winning streak after dropping the first three games of the season.

Over those aforementioned eight games, Indy is averaging a league-best 164.8 rushing yards per game, more than double of the bottom five teams.

This game will be a good litmus test for Indy and Taylor, facing the defending champs and top rushing defense in the league.

The Bucs have held teams to 78.4 rush yards per game, but that's up from the 45.8 rush yards they allowed over the first five weeks.

The last five games have seen Tampa give up 111 rushing yards per game, allowing the Eagles, Saints and Bears to all go for over 100.

Taylor is averaging 6.6 yards per carry over his last six games and will be a true test for the Tampa rush defense.

After holding down Josh Allen and the Bills for most of the game a month ago, the Dolphins defense dominated the Texans, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens and shut down the Jets last week, only allowing a broken coverage TD and a short-field TD.

Over the four games, the defense is third in the league in points allowed (15.5 PPG), second in defensive efficiency and has held QBs to a 30.8 QBR, second-best in the league.

Unlike the Dolphins and their recent surge, the Panthers have done it all year on defense, ranking second in the league in total yards allowed per game (288.7), sixth in PPG (20.0) and first against the pass (174.2 YPG).

None of the last four Dolphins games (since the defense started playing well) have reached the listed 42 total, and I don't expect this one to either.

Despite an 8-3 record, the Titans currently rank just 18th overall -- and those numbers are for the full season, which means they include games where Derrick Henry and Julio Jones were healthy.

The defense is dealing with a number of injuries as well, as Jackrabbit Jenkins, Rashaan Evans, and David Long all missed last week's game.

Their power running game will attack a Tennessee front that excels at rushing the passer but ranks only 18th in adjusted line yards allowed per carry on defense.

They give up the fewest points per game in the league (16.1), have 21 takeaways (third in the NFL), are seventh in the NFL in sacks (just three behind the leaders), and quarterbacks are only averaging a 59.6% completion percentage against them.

Take note that Philly now ranks second in the NFL in rushing offense while Big Blue ranks 30th in the league in rush defense DVOA.

The Jaguars are ranked higher than the Falcons in all three phases of the game: offense (25 vs. 31), defense (29 vs. 30) and special teams (28 vs. 31).

The Jaguars should be particularly strong on the ground in this game, as they rank fourth in run DVOA on offense while Atlanta is just 24th in run defense.

For Matt Ryan and the rest of Atlanta's offense, the Jaguars' defense won't pose the same challenge they saw against the Patriots, whose defense has allowed the fewest opponent yards per game over the last three games (207.3).

Cordarrelle Patterson's return could not be better timed for Ryan against a Jacksonville defense that allows the 12th-most yards per game (363) and ranks 29th in defensive efficiency.

Meanwhile, the Falcons defense should be able to contain Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has averaged just 169 passing yards and 0.2 passing touchdowns per game since Week 8.

The issue here is Denver's defense is much, much better in points allowed (third in the NFL) than in our DVOA ratings, where the Broncos are now down to 26th

Denver actually ranks higher in offense (15th) than defense

They rank third in offensive DVOA and 21st on defense, and four of their last six games have gone over this number, with a fifth just missing at 47 points

While averaging 30.6 points per game during the first half of the season, the Rams looked like legitimate Super Bowl contenders

Once Robert Woods was knocked out for the season with a torn ACL, the Rams hit a further roadblock, falling to the Titans and 49ers in back-to-back games in which they averaged only 13 points

Stafford averaged 268.5 passing yards per game in those losses, with two touchdowns and four interceptions

Over the first eight games of 2021, he averaged 309.7 passing yards per game with 22 touchdown passes and only four interceptions

The Packers had only allowed 22 points or less in each of their previous seven games before last week's game against the Vikings, in which they surrendered 34 points

The Packers' defense has been particularly strong at Lambeau, only allowing an average of 11 points over four games played at home

Conversely, look for Jimmy Garoppolo and company to hang a respectable number against a Vikings defense that is permitting an average of 28.6 points per game on the road this season (28th in the NFL)

Minnesota has been a very profitable underdog this season, going 5-1 ATS, largely because every Vikings game seems to go down to the wire

Minnesota has played nine one-score games and five games decided by three or fewer points, so I like getting at least a field goal with them

Baltimore leads the NFL with 31.6 rushing attempts per game, while the Browns rank fifth with 30 attempts per game

Jackson is averaging 272 passing yards and 71 rushing yards per game this season

Baker Mayfield, on the other hand, is averaging only 216.6 passing yards per game this season while playing through multiple injuries

The Browns' defense has not done well against top-tier quarterbacks and will have a difficult time stopping Jackson and his explosive passing game this season

Meanwhile, Cleveland has a plethora of injuries in their wide receiving corps and may have to rely on their tight ends to generate success in the passing game