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Rising interest rates may continue to test the stock market in the week ahead - CNBC
Feb 26, 2021 2 mins, 20 secs
The tug of war between stocks and rising bond yields could set the tone for the coming week, particularly if positive economic data continues to push Treasury yields higher.

Friday's February employment report is the highlight of the week's data and an important current look at the impact of the virus on the economy, after just 49,000 jobs were added in January.

Fed speakers are also a major focus of the markets, after the rapid rise in bond yields this past week had the feel of a runaway train.

"If he wants to stop this rise in rates, he does have to say something.

The more dovish he sounds, the higher rates will go," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.

Some Fed watchers doubt the central bank will comment on the rise in yields any more than Powell did this past week when he said the move was the result of a strengthening economy.

The benchmark 10-year yield, which influences mortgages and other loans, was at 1.46% Friday afternoon, about 15 basis points, or 0.15%, above its level just a week earlier.

The fast move up in yields, which rise when prices fall, scared stock investors in the past week, evident in choppy trading and a big sell-off Thursday.

The Nasdaq fell nearly 4.9% for the week, as technology shares were hit the hardest, but the S&P 500 was down about 2.4% for the week.

and we are now in many measures just getting back above pre-pandemic levels," he said.

The Biden administration's $1.9 trillion stimulus package should go to a Senate vote in the week ahead.

The expected economic boost from stimulus has also been driving yields higher, and it has also heightened concerns about inflation.

But in the 14 years, like this one, when stocks were lower in January but higher in February, the S&P rose an average 1.9% in March.

Stovall, who has been expecting a market sell-off, said the technology and consumer discretionary sectors did among the worst this past week, when stocks were selling off, but they had also gained the most.

"It was really the speed at which it happened that made everybody worried," he said, noting the move this past week was distinguished by the fact it was also in shorter duration securities, such as the 5-year note.

"Basically the market was testing the Fed's resolve of keeping rates low for a long time," said Caron.

and rates go up just on that.".

"They want to see a rise in rates for a good reason," he said.

Other data in the week ahead includes ISM manufacturing data Monday and Thursday's jobless claims, important after an unexpected decline in the past week's data.

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