For example, the Columbia University model, which Vermont officials have cited in the past, assumes that “contact rates” will slightly increase in the near future, yet it currently predicts declining case trends under that assumption.Its model forecasts rising cases in Vermont under the first two projections — above 400 cases per day by the end of November — and forecasts cases leveling off under the last.Even the Covid-19 Forecast Hub, which collects and summarizes the results of 33 models, warns of “substantial uncertainty” for hospitalizations and deaths in the coming weeks.
The United States as a whole, by contrast, has reported declining cases, hospitalizations and deaths, making its projections clearer.
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