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Why investors fear a full-percentage-point Fed rate hike would 'unnerve' Wall Street - MarketWatch
Sep 20, 2022 2 mins, 13 secs
The Fed has delivered two 75 basis point interest-rate hikes so far this year.

stocks and bonds under pressure on Tuesday, some on Wall Street argue that investors are underestimating the possibility that the Fed might deliver a surprise 100-basis-point interest-rate hike at the close of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday.

While fed-funds futures traders overwhelmingly anticipate a hike of 75 basis points, or 0.75 percentage point, on Wednesday, their concern is that last week’s August consumer-price index print, coupled with the still-robust labor market, may have convinced Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other hawks on the Fed’s policy-setting committee that they must do more than simply stay the course as they struggle to curb inflation.

Should this come to pass, it would mark the most aggressive instance of Fed tightening since the days of Paul Volcker, who served as Fed chair from 1979 to 1987, coming on the heels of two 75-basis-point “jumbo” rate hikes, and a 50 basis-point hike in May.

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, said in a note to clients that a 100-basis-point hike would represent an “overreaction” on the Fed’s part.

“We think a 100 bps hike would unnerve Wall Street, as it would imply that the FOMC is overreacting to the data rather than sticking to its game plan, and would increase the likelihood that the FOMC will eventually overtighten and lessen the possibility of achieving a soft landing,” Stovall wrote in a note to clients.

If they were to go to 100 basis points, I think it would be shocking to the market,” said David Rubenstein, the billionaire founder of private-equity giant Carlyle Group, said during a Monday interview with Fox Business.

So far, Japanese investment bank Nomura has been one of the few major sell-side institutions to call for a 100-basis-point hike on Wednesday.

In a research note published early Tuesday, Nomura cross-asset strategist Charlie McElligott explained why he believes markets are “significantly underpricing” the prospect of a 100-basis-point hike.

If the Fed does deliver a 100 basis-point hike, such an aggressive move would force markets to reckon with the possibility that the fed-funds rate could top 5% next year, which would be anathema to markets and perhaps the economy.

“We think the odds of a 100 basis-point move — though certainly not zero — are lower than a third…good drivers don’t increase their speed as they get closer to their destination,” Feroli wrote in a note to clients published in the middle of last week.

The additional 50 basis points of expected tightening would help to bring the upper band of the Fed’s interest-rate target to 4.25% by next spring, which is still much higher than many had expected back in July.

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