Additional cases of a more transmissible version of the COVID-19 virus have been popping up around Canada recently, and experts are concerned about what that could mean for an already unruly spread of the disease.
Earlier this week, Ontario reported eight new cases of the variant, labelled B.1.1.7.
“We need to take this seriously — not just the new variants, but the virus in general — and suppress transmission as much as possible so we can do away with nasty surprises like this.”.
A virus spreading around the community more easily leads to an increase in hospitalization and deaths once it gets into more vulnerable populations.
Cynthia Carr, an epidemiologist in Winnipeg, says the variant “doesn’t have to be more severe to be serious.”.
“There’s no evidence that the variant itself is more dangerous, but there’s also no evidence that it’s less impactful.”.
Carr says scientists have seen more viral load in people infected with the variant, which makes them more contagious.
Mutations in the virus’s genetic material have also made the variant more transmissible by allowing it to attach better to our cells.
showed that even with restrictive measures, the variant was spreading with an R-value of 1.45 — each positive case was infecting 1.45 others — instead of the 0.95 rate of the older version’s spread amid the same public health restrictions.
That’s how a variant can “quickly become a dominant strain,” Carr says.
Experts say there’s no evidence right now that B.1.1.7 remains viable on surfaces longer, or spreads better outdoors than the other version of virus.
Carr says to be cautious in cold weather, however, where dry air may allow viral droplets — from the new variant or not — to float around longer before hitting the ground.
Ross Upshur of the University of Toronto’s School of Public Health says scientists are keeping an eye on one recently originating in South Africa and another emerging out of Brazil.
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