400000 More U.S. Deaths Than Normal Since Covid-19 Struck - The New York Times

Since March, at least 400,000 more Americans have died than would have in a normal year, a sign of the broad devastation wrought by the coronavirus pandemic.

An analysis of mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows how the pandemic is bringing with it unusual patterns of death, even higher than the official totals of deaths that have been directly linked to the virus.

Deaths nationwide were 18 percent higher than normal from March 15, 2020, to Dec.

Our numbers may be an undercount since recent death statistics are still being updated.

Our analysis examines deaths from all causes — not just confirmed cases of coronavirus — beginning when the virus took hold in the United States last spring.

That allows comparisons that do not depend on the accuracy of cause-of-death reporting, and includes deaths related to disruptions caused by the pandemic as well as the virus itself.

Epidemiologists refer to fatalities in the gap between the observed and normal numbers of deaths as “excess deaths.”.

As Covid-19 cases have spread across the country, the geographic patterns of abnormal mortality statistics have followed.

Excess deaths have peaked three times, so far, as have deaths from Covid-19.

There are now excess deaths in every state, with surges in states like California, Colorado, Kansas and Ohio fueling record death tolls in recent weeks.

Reported Covid-19 deaths.

Total excess deaths.

Total above normal.

Counting deaths takes time, and many states are weeks or months behind in reporting

It will take several months before all these numbers are finalized

During the period of our analysis, estimated excess deaths were 21 percent higher than the official coronavirus fatality count

14, the total death toll would be about 470,000

For comparison, around 600,000 Americans die from cancer in a normal year

The number of unusual deaths for this period is higher than the typical number of annual deaths from Alzheimers, stroke or diabetes

Measuring excess deaths does not tell us precisely how each person died

Most of the excess deaths in this period are because of the coronavirus itself

But it is also possible that deaths from other causes have risen too, as hospitals in some hot spots have become overwhelmed and people have been scared to seek care for ailments that are typically survivable

Some causes of death may be declining, as people stay inside more, drive less and limit their contact with others

Drug deaths also rose steeply in the first half of 2020, according to preliminary C.D.C

Total death numbers are estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which are based on death certificates counted by the centers and adjusted to account for typical lags in the reporting of deaths

Coronavirus death numbers are from the New York Times database of reports from state and local health agencies and hospitals

Covid-19 deaths include both confirmed and probable deaths from the virus

Our charts show weekly deaths above or below normal

estimates the data to be at least 90 percent complete or estimated deaths are above expected death numbers

Because states vary somewhat in their speed in reporting deaths to the federal government, these state charts show death trends for slightly different time periods

We have not included weeks in which reported deaths were less than 50 percent of the C.D.C

Expected deaths were calculated with a simple model based on the weekly number of all-cause deaths from 2015 to 2019, adjusted to account for trends, like population changes, over time

Excess death numbers are rounded

Cases and deaths for every county

Cases at more than 1,700 schools

Cases and deaths for every country