Coronavirus | India’s COVID tally fifth highest in world

Registering a new high in the number of daily cases detected — 10,085 — India on June 6 overtook Spain to become the country with the fifth highest confirmed COVID-19 infections (2,46,292).

The study found that India’s reproduction number (R0), or the average number of people a single COVID-positive patient infects, has increased between lockdown 1.0 and the beginning of lockdown 3.0.

Moreover, India needs 621 million ‘recoveries’ to achieve ‘herd immunity’ at current rates of disease transmission, says the study that appeared online on June 2 in the peer-reviewed Indian Journal of Public Health (IJPH).

“On April 2, 8 days after Phase 1 lockdown, the estimated Rt (the R0 at a particular period) decreased to 1.91.

At the end of Phase 1 (April 14) and Phase 2 (May 3) of lockdown, Rt was 1.28 and 1.83.

May 4, or the beginning of lockdown 3.0 saw easing of restrictions in public activity.

Interactive map of confirmed coronavirus cases in India | State-wise tracker for coronavirus cases, deaths and testing rates.

The authors of the study say that the lockdown has “slowed the pandemic” and that India's health system responded to the pandemic “with swiftness.”.

Sanjay Rai, President, Indian Public Health Association which publishes the IPJH said herd immunity referred to the number of people protected, either by exposure or vaccination.

“The first lockdown certainly slowed progression and was meant to prepare our health facilities but it isn't clear what the objectives of the subsequent lockdowns were.”.

Rai was among the signatories of a recent petition by public health experts that criticised the government for not taking field-level epidemiologists on board on deciding lockdown extensions, “Estimates of R0 are all projections based on various assumption and we still don't know what the true numbers are for India,” he said?

India and Russia are the only countries with 2,00,000 cases plus where a lockdown has failed to curb a rise in cases.

Brazil with 500,000 cases and 35,000 deaths didn't impose a national lockdown.

with 1.9 million cases and over a 1, 00,000 deaths is still in a lockdown.

Government experts in charge of India's COVID management strategy have at different points claimed that the lockdown was about stamping out the infection by mid-May but are now arguing that it was about ensuring the number of new cases didn't exceed hospitals’ healthcare capacity.

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