Iran’s missiles were shot down – but they still delivered what Tehran was hoping for | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

Earlier this month, after an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus killed several military commanders, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, used his sermon to mark Eid al-Fitr to equate Israel’s attack on the diplomatic facility to an attack on Iranian soil, and vowed that Israel’s “mistake” would be punished.

For Khamenei and his generation of revolutionaries, the first achievement of the Islamic revolution was the “stability and security of the country”, exemplified in the “sacred defence” of Iran against Saddam Hussein’s invasion.

Photograph: Pablo Martínez Monsiváis/APBut the direct nature of the attack, which made it so spectacular and frightening, may still compel a strong Israeli response, possibly triggering a new and dangerous cycle of escalation.

In taking the fight to Iran, Israel sees an opportunity to regain international support, so eroded by its horrendous conduct in Gaza.

But today, the American electorate no longer understands what national security interests are at stake in the Middle East, and increasingly believes that ironclad commitments should have brassbound conditions.

To this end, it has developed an acute understanding of Biden’s deep reluctance to enter a new war, most recently evidenced by his response to the death of three US soldiers in an attack at the al-Tank military base in Syria in January.