‘Like the Somme without the generals’: Tory nerves grow as local elections loom

Loyalists point out that many were last fought in 2021, when a still relatively popular Boris Johnson was in No 10 and the government had not yet been rocked by the Partygate scandal or Liz Truss’s emergency budget.

Downing Street aides deny that Sunak’s fate rests on the outcome of the two high-profile mayoral races, arguing instead that the contests will be fought on regional issues.

Yet both will inevitably be seen as bellwethers for Conservative fortunes in the general election expected later this year, and a test of the party’s chances of holding on to voters in two key battlegrounds where Labour is targeting seats.

Photograph: Fabio De Paola/The GuardianBen Houchen’s prospects of winning a second term in the Tees Valley seem brighter, not least because he was elected in 2021 with 72.8% of the vote, compared with 27.2% for Labour, leading to his allies jokingly celebrating the “North Korean level” result.

Since then, the government has poured tens of millions into the region while Houchen, the poster boy for the party’s levelling up policy, retains a local popularity that seems to defy the national mood.

Sunak loyalists remain optimistic that the majority of Tory MPs, while fairly despondent with the current state of play, recognise that getting rid of yet another prime minister this side of the general election could be terminal.