UK general election opinion poll tracker: Labour leading as election looms

The next UK general election is looming, with most analysts expecting it to be called late this year.

After 13 years of Conservative rule, Keir Starmer’s Labour has been consistently ahead in the polls since the start of 2022.

But its geographical concentration in Scotland means it will win many more seats than other small parties with a similar national vote share, such as the Greens.

What matters is the number of seats each party wins in parliament, which is decided by individual races in 650 constituencies.

In Britain’s first-past-the-post system the numbers in the polls do not correlate cleanly to seats because it depends where votes are located.

The chart shows a rolling 10-day average for the support of each party based on Great Britain-wide polls.