A Russian offensive to encircle Ukraine’s capital city of Kiev now looks like a realistic possibility.
One line of thinking is that Russian forces would execute a swift, overwhelming strike meant to inflict massive and irrecoverable losses on the Ukrainian military that would spur a political capitulation (and possibly a change in government) in Kiev.At least one-third of Ukrainians, according to recent polling, are ready to take up arms and resist a Russian invasion by force.When Russia invaded the Donbas in 2014, Ukraine’s regular armed forces could muster only a few thousand combat-ready soldiers.Many of these volunteers learned how to be soldiers while in combat — a baptism by fire they refer to as “natural selection” boot camp.
That said, Ukraine’s regular armed forces are no pushover.
The Ukrainian army is a professional, disciplined and battle-hardened force.Western military aid has improved the survivability of Ukraine’s combat forces in the Donbas.Apart from the symbolic value, however, I fear it’s already too late for Western military aid to improve Ukraine’s ability to defend against a major Russian offensive.